Much of Central and Southern Illinois is once again under the threat for severe thunderstorms this evening into the overnight hours. The SPC has a level 3 of 5 Enhanced risk for portions of South-Central and Southern Illinois and a level 2 of 5 Slight risk for areas South of a Bloomington Peoria Line.
I’m going to break this post down into two parts the Pana area and then the rest of the state. We will start with Pana and if you want the information about the whole state scroll down.
Pana, we are in the enhanced risk. The main threat will be large hail with the potential for baseball-sized stones with any intense storms. The tornado and damaging wind threat will depend on if the storms become surface-based, which will rely on the position of the warm front. If storms can interact with the warm front and become surface-based, then we could see an increase in the tornado threat, including the potential for strong tornadoes.
Timing for the Pana area looks to be between 5-8 PM for the first round and after 10 PM for the second round of storms.
For the rest of the state, large hail looks to be the main threat for areas in the slight risk (Yellow). For locations between I-70 and I-72 (Enhanced risk), the severe threat could be more robust thanks to the warm front in the area, but I still think the main threat is large to the size of baseballs.
For storm timing, we look to have two rounds. The first round will pose the threat for all hazards, including tornadoes, as it moves across the area after 4 PM. Once again, the tornado threat will be maximized for areas near the warm front.
The second round will move through shortly after the first round and could bring large hail and damaging winds. I’m still uncertain about the severe potential with the second round as we could have a more stable environment due to overturning of the atmosphere from the first round.
Heavy rain is also a threat with a flood watch in effect for portions Central Illinois where 2-4″ of rain could fall.
Tuesday also has the threat for severe storms in the morning hours between 8-Noon. THis is much more conditional and storms may form much further East and miss Southeast Illinois all together.
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