We’re anticipating a busy few days ahead here in Illinois as two weather systems traverse the state. The initial system is set to pass through tonight (Friday), bringing with it the possibility of light accumulating snow in certain areas. The second system, which has been closely monitored for its potentially more significant impacts, is on the horizon. Let’s delve into the details of each system.
Friday into Saturday
An upper-level disturbance is poised to bring the potential for snow from Friday night into Saturday in Illinois. According to the most recent model guidance, the heaviest snowfall is anticipated between I-55 and I-57, with an expected accumulation of 1-2 inches.
Based on the HRRR model, snow is forecasted to initiate around 8 PM, becoming widespread by 10 PM. Areas south and just north of a line extending from Terre Haute to Carbondale are expected to experience rain, with minimal snowfall anticipated in those regions.
Next Week
The upcoming system anticipated from Monday to Wednesday is poised to bring a mix of rain and snow to the region. This system is leaning towards the warmer side, primarily due to the absence of arctic air. Consequently, the potential for snow has become limited, and a significant portion of the event may manifest as a cold rain. There exists a narrow window for accumulating snow as the system moves eastward.
Models still vary regarding the low’s location, the area of heaviest snowfall, and the anticipated snowfall amounts. As of my current update, my primary concern with the snowfall forecast revolves around the impact of the warm ground, potential influence of warm air on precipitation type, and the actual accumulation of snow.
Given these uncertainties, my confidence in predicting this system’s outcome is currently low. I do not anticipate releasing a snowfall forecast until Sunday, allowing for a more accurate assessment of the evolving conditions and better-informed predictions.
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