El Niño, what does that mean for this winter?

According to the Climate Prediction Center, it is forecasted that El Niño will persist into early 2024. What implications does this hold for our upcoming winter in Central Illinois? Typically, El Niño tends to usher in warmer and drier conditions for the Central United States, including Central Illinois.

When examining El Niños dating back to 1950, a notable observation emerges: Central Illinois has experienced a greater frequency of below-average temperatures during El Niños. It’s important to emphasize that we have also witnessed a considerable number of El Niño years marked by above-average temperatures.

Observing average snowfall patterns (below), it becomes evident that total snowfall falls below the average during El Niño events.

We reached NWS in Lincoln IL on what they expect for the area as we head into Winter 2023.

Meteorologist Ed Shimons says “ To summarize the CPC outlooks a bit, for an El Nino winter with just a slightly above normal temperature outlook, we typically see around 2-3 warmer than normal periods in our typically cold January and February time periods. That can tip the balance for temperatures just a bit above normal. That would allow for more potential of mixed-precipitation (sleet/freezing rain) or even a few more rainy days instead of snow. Not all El Nino winters follow the ‘pattern’. “

“El Nino winters can have a more active severe weather potential, due to strong waves that can develop along the Sub-tropical Jet when it coincides with a subsequent arrival of a pronounced Arctic intrusion. Those cold frontal passages in winter can trigger severe outbreaks. ” says Ed.

So, what can we anticipate for this year? Following the traditional El Niño pattern, we might anticipate a warmer and drier winter. However, considering the average temperature trend dating back to 1950, it’s essentially a equal chance of experiencing above or below-average temperatures, we will have to wait and see what this Winter season brings us. When discussing snowfall, I would lean towards below-average accumulation and some cold rainy days.