As of 7:00 AM, the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across a significant portion of Illinois. The region is characterized by a complex atmospheric setup, posing the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
Despite the threat, a crucial question remains: will thunderstorms materialize? Forecast models indicate a robust cap in place over the area. This cap, a layer of of warm air, acts as a barrier inhibiting the development of thunderstorms by preventing the upward ascent of cooler air within developing thunderstorm.
The key consideration now is whether there will be sufficient forcing or mechanisms to initiate storm formation. According to the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, Illinois is looks to remain storm-free until after sunset, coinciding with the passage of a cold front. Storms forming along this front are likely to primarily produce damaging winds and large hail.
A specific focus is on the potential isolated development of storms in Northeast and Eastern Illinois as a dryline advances through Central Illinois this afternoon. If a storm forms off the dryline, it holds the highest probability of producing severe weather, including the risk of large hail and potentially a few tornadoes .
Keep an eye on Southern Illinois, as the Low-Level Jet could play a role in fostering and intensifying the threat of severe thunderstorms during the evening hours. The primary concern appears to be damaging winds.
As the cold front pushes through the area, we can expect a quick drop in temperatures as well as gusty winds. Any precipitation behind the front has the potential to change over to some light snow, and the temperature falls quickly.
Summary:
- Slight risk for severe storms in much of Illinois.
- Storm coverage anticipated to be isolated.
- Isolated to scattered Storms are expected after sunset, with a particular emphasis on Northern and Southern Illinois.
- Cold front passage. Cold and windy. Light snow.
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